Areas of research include spatial data analysis and state-space modelling.

 

Dr White is currently a Research Fellow with CEPS, based at The University of Queensland, and working on the Vulnerable Communities and START projects.

 

Abstract: Terrorist incidents are meant to have an impact on society by increasing society's sense of volatility, the potential for future incidents. How much these incidents actually increase volatility is an open question. In this paper we present a mathematical model for discrete events as a self-exciting hurdle process. In this model we analyse the impact of incidents and multiple event incidents on the risk of incidents as well as the expected number of events per incident. We apply this model to terrorist incidents in Indonesia between 1977 and 2006. Analysis shows that there is a change point in Indonesia around 1996 that ushered in an era of increased terrorist activity. The analysis further shows that terrorist incidents do increase volatility, the risk of events and the expected number of events per incident. This is an initial attempt to model this dataset and is a first step in a more thorough course of examination incorporating more historical and contextual data into the model.

 

Date and Time: Tuesday 23 February 2010, 10.30am - 11.30am

 

Venue: Room 5.01, M10 (Social Sciences Building), Mt Gravatt campus, Griffith University (map), Brisbane.

 

RSVP: to Kylie Baker through email k.baker@griffith.edu.au by Thursday 18 February 2010.